
I want to talk to the opportunity-costers out there who are working through the decision to make the leap into a startup. It’s very simple- don’t do it.
A few years ago, I met a person who was contemplating quitting her job to do a startup. She explained that she was trying to figure out how long and how much to devote to the startup. She was looking at the salary that she would get in a ‘real company’, how long it would take for an exit, doing a discounted cash flow…blah, blah, blah.
I commented that she didn’t need to spend one more second thinking through the decision and should focus all of her energy on a traditional job search. She thought I was being a wise-a$!, until I walked her through the back-of-the-envelope opportunity cost analysis. This is easy, even for the non-quants (my benchmarks are a little dated, but the outcome will be roughly the same with current data I’m sure):
[(1/57) times .2 times .05 times $117 million] all divided by (1.05^5)
The terms are:
1/57 – ratio of deals pitched to deals funded by VCs
.2 – ratio of VC backed firms that return anything
.05 – your expected ownership at the time of exit
$117 million – average exit valuation for VC-backed M&A activity
1.05^5 – discount the value back to today using 5% per year, assuming an exit in 5 years
If you do the math, the answer is a little north of $16K. Yeah, $16K!
In my 25 years as a startuppist, I’ve had the great privilege of working with a disproportionate number of ridiculously smart technologists and experienced business people. What conclusions should we draw about these people given the math – they’re all crazy; they’re all unemployable; they’re all just stupid?
No way. These folks were able to get beyond the math and focus on building a product, serving customers and building a business.
How you interpret the first term, 1/57, says a lot about your potential for thriving in a startup. An entrepreneur says, “Great, now I know that I need to talk to 58 high potential investors in order to get my important new company funded. Let’s get to work.” An O-coster logs into iTunes and downloads a book about cheese.
Starting up isn’t about ignoring risk. It’s about developing a deep understanding of the risk, constructing an execution plan that mitigates the risk and committing to doing whatever it takes to positively tilt the risk profile. So wipe the Facebook fairy dust out of your eyes and get back to work. You have a long row to hoe. And it will be worth it.
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Dan Seitam is the COO for C-leveled.
dseitam@c-leveled.com